Session 21: Power System Planning in Market Conditions
Getting Back to Scenario Planning: Strategic Action in the Future of Energy Europe
1Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden; 2KTH Executive School; 3KreabGavinAndersson
Scenario planning is a commonly used method in order to analyse complex aspects of the energy system. Historically it has been an important tool to prepare for long-term action. Today however, due to the deregulated market, it could be assumed that scenario analysis is abandoned. Maybe more (the only) attention is on short-term action.
This paper presents a review over the time period of 1970 to 2010 on scenario-planning articles. The overall purpose is to evaluate how historical scenario studies stand in a situation of today’s deregulated energy markets.
Articles surveyed are published in well-respected and internationally well-spread peer-reviewed journals. Focus is put on 1, when, and by whom, articles have been published 2, for what reasons projects have been taken and with what method 3, what aspect that have been in focus. The articles are also analysed in terms of possible use in today’s deregulated situation.
Three conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the main use of scenario planning still tends to be a support to political processes. Secondly, three major issues and drivers for change dominate when different aspects of the energy system are analysed in scenario projects: climate change, security in terms of demand/supply and economic development. Thirdly, it is concluded that scenario planning still tend to be of value when analysing the future of the deregulated energy sector in Europe.
However, in order to be fully utilized for the future scenario methodology must take into account that energy industry actors are not being controlled by politics as they where during the regulated period.
Multiyear Transmission Expansion Planning using Discrete Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization
FEUP & INESC Porto, Portugal
The objective of Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) is to obtain a plan to expand or reinforce a transmission network that minimizes construction and operational costs while satisfying the requirement of delivering electricity safely and reliably to load centres along the planning horizon. This definition is quite simple, but the complexity of the problem and the impact on society transforms TEP on a challenging issue. The objective of this paper is the introduction of a new discrete approach to solve dynamic TEP, based on an improved version of the Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) metaheuristic algorithm. The paper includes sections describing the Discrete EPSO (DEPSO), an enhanced approach of EPSO, the mathematical formulation of the problem, including the objective function and constraints, and the application of DEPSO to this problem. Finally, the use of the developed approach is illustrated using Case Studies based on the Garver network and on the IEEE 24 bus / 38 branch test system.
A Scenario Analysis for an Optimal Pan-European Cross-Border Network Development
RSE S.p.A., Italy
The paper is aimed to assess the impact of a nonoptimal development of the European cross-border electricity transmission network. The assessment has been carried out by developing and running a model of the European power system, by means of which we compared scenarios characterized by the developments of cross-border interconnections proposed by the different European TSOs (“proposed expansion”) with the optimal (in terms of least overall cost) developments determined by the model (“optimal expansion”). The assessment, focused on security of supply (in terms of energy not supplied), competitiveness (electricity production costs) and sustainability (CO2 emissions), showed that the “proposed expansion” is clearly sub-optimal, since in the “optimal expansion” case several interconnections are expanded significantly more.
Analyzing the Regional Development of the German Power System Using a Nodal Pricing Approach
Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Germany
In this paper we present a modeling approach for the analysis of the long-term evolution of power systems, which considers the regional characteristics of power supply. This is realized by integrating a nodal pricing approach into an optimization model for power systems. To ensure an adequate representation of all regional data, the model is coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS). Here, we apply the model to analyze the long-term regional development of the German power system.
Energy Development Strategy of Lower Silesia by Using the Foresight Methods
Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland
Energy policy and regulations of the European Union have influence not only on the policy of the individual members’ states but also on the regional regulations. Therefore the members’ countries more often emphasize the activities and initiatives in the individual regions that enable the development of the small local energy markets. In this paper we present the results obtained during the research project cofounded by the European Regional Development Fund that is currently realized at the Wroclaw University of Technology (Poland) „Energy development strategy of Lower Silesia by using the foresight methods” (“Strategia rozwoju energetyki na Dolnym Śląsku metodami foresightowymi”). In the research study, according to the foresight methodology, the selected group of experts characterized the possibility of the development of Lower Silesia’s energy market in the context of the challenge facing the region. During the examination, the research group of the project stressed not only on the new technologies that can be developed by dint of the human possibilities, technical capacities and geographical location of Lower Silesia but also on the conventional technologies. The main result of the presented project is the document of the regional significance that indicates the proper activities that enable the development of the energy market of Lower Silesia.
Approval Procedures for Building Transmission Lines: Obstacles and Solutions
1TU Delft, Netherlands, The; 2TU Eindhoven, Netherlands, The; 3RSE; 4TenneT; 5RTE; 6TERNA; 7Verbund APG
This paper proposes a new approach -- set up within the REALISEGRID research project -- for speeding up approval procedures for building transmission infrastructure. The experiences of Transmission System Operators from Netherlands, Italy, France, Austria and Germany are studied in order to generalize and pinpoint the main weaknesses and strengths of current approval procedures. Recommendations concerning how to reduce the time needed for approval procedures are made. The problem of consensus improvement is also analysed. Suggestions for better structuring of the decision process in transmission planning, with high involvement of stakeholders, are made. A systemic approach for speeding up authorization procedures is proposed by combining the country survey and the consensus improvement findings. Actions are defined on different time horizons.